At the 2017 scientific assembly in Port Elizabeth (South Africa) I gave a perspective talk titled "Should we reconsider the conceptual structure of hydrological models?". My presentation is a bit provocative and focuses on stochastic physically-based modeling of hydrological processes.

I gave a talk on the river memory experiment at the 2017 scientific assembly in Port Elizabeth (South Africa).

I presented a perspective on the status of the IAHS scientific decade 2013-2022 Panta Rhei at the IAHS 2017 scientific assembly in Port Elizabeth (South Africa). Panta Rhei is about change in hydrology and society.

Coastal engineering made easy is a pretentious title for an evolving e-book that is meant to provide an introductory reference to students who are interested in the design of coastal structures for beach preservation and restoration.


Scientific papers

Scientific Papers

[84] Ceola, S., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Human‐impacted waters: New perspectives from global high‐resolution monitoring. Water Resources Research, 51(9), 7064-7079, 2015.

[83] Sikorska, A.E., Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Estimating the Uncertainty of Hydrological Predictions through Data-Driven Resampling Techniques, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20, 2015.

[82] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!, Water Resources Research, 50, 9748-9756, 2014.

[81] Ceola, S., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7184-7190, 2014.

[80] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Reply to comment by Grey Nearing on "A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems", Water Resources Research, 50, 6264-6268, 2014.

[79] Montanari, A., Debates-The future of hydrological sciences: A (common) path forward? Introduction, Water Resources Research, 50, 5334-5334, 2014.

[78] Montanari, A., Water Resources Research in 2013, Water Resources Research, 50, 2787-2794, 2014.

[77] Bloeschl, G., Bardossy, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Kundzewicz, Z., Littlewood, I., Montanari, A., Savenije, H., On the future of journal publications in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 50, 2795-2797, 2014.

[76] Ceola, S., Bertuzzo, E., Singer, G., Battin, T., Montanari, A., Rinaldo, A., Hydrologic controls on basin- scale distribution of benthic invertebrates, Water Resources Research, 50, 2903-2920, 2014.

[75] Gupta, H.V., Perrin, C., Bloeschl, G., Montanari, A., Kumar, R., Clark, M., Andreassian, V., Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 463-477, 2014.

[74] Ceola, S., Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 1(5), 427-438, 2014.

[73] Montanari, A., Bloeschl, G., Cai, X., Mackay, D.S., Michalak, A., Rajaram, H., Sander, G., Editorial: Toward 50 years of Water Resources Research, Water Resources Research, 49, 7841-7842, 2013.

[72] Montanari, A., et al. "“Panta Rhei—everything flows”: change in hydrology and society—the IAHS scientific decade 2013–2022." Hydrological Sciences Journal 58.6, 1256-1275, 2013.

[71] Hrachowitz, M., et al., A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 58, 1198-1255, 2013.

[70] Thompson, S.E., Sivapalan, M., Harman, C.J., Srinivasan, V., Hipsey, M.R., Reed, P., Montanari, A., Bloeschl, G., Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 5013-5039, 2013.

[69] Montanari, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Data errors and hydrological modelling: The role of model structure to propagate observation uncertainty, Advances in Water Resources, 51, 498-504, 2013.

[68] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems, Water Resources Research, 48, 2012.

[67] Baratti, E., Montanari, A., Castellarin, A., Salinas, J.L., Viglione, A., Bezzi, A., Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4651-4660.

[66] Montanari, A., Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3739-3747, 2012.

[65] Montosi, E., Manzoni, S., Porporato, A., Montanari, A., An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2759-2769, 2012.

[64] Di Baldassarre, G., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 85-90, 2012 (PDF).

[63] Lombardi, L., Toth, E., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Brath, A., Calibration of a rainfall–runoff model at regional scale by optimising river discharge statistics: Performance analysis for the average/low flow regime, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 77-84, 2012 (PDF).

[62] Biondi, D., Freni, G., Iacobellis, V., Mascaro, G., Montanari, A., Validation of hydrological models: Conceptual basis, methodological approaches and a proposal for a code of practice, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 70-76, 2012 (PDF).

[61] Freni, G., Mannina, G., Montanari, A., Uncertainty in environmental and hydrological mathematical modelling - Introduction to Special Issue "Estimating and representing uncertainty in applied hydrology, hydraulics and water quality studies", Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 1-2, 2012 (PDF).

[60] Andrés-Doménech, I. Montanari, A., Marco, J.B., Efficiency of Storm Detention Tanks for Urban Drainage Systems under Climate Variability, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, 138, 36-46, 2012 (PDF).

[59] Papalexiou, S.-M., Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Can a simple stochastic model generate rich patterns of rainfall events?, Journal of Hydrology, 411, 279-289, 2011 (PDF).

[58] Wagener, T., Montanari, A., Convergence of approaches toward reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins, Water Resources Research, 47, doi:10.1029/2010WR009469, 2011 (PDF).

[57] Hostache, R., Matgen, P., Montanari, A., Montanari, M., Hoffmann, L., Pfister, L., Propagation of uncertainties in coupled hydro-meteorological forecasting systems: A stochastic approach for the assessment of the total predictive uncertainty, Atmospheric Research, 100, 263 - 274, 2011 (PDF).

[56] Montanari, A., Uncertainty of hydrological predictions, in Treatise on Water Science, edited by Peter A. Wilderer, Elsevier., 2011 (PDF).

[55] Brandimarte, L., Di Baldassarre, G., Bruni, G., D’Odorico, P., Montanari, A.,  Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas, Water Resources Management, 25, 1269– 1279, 2011 (PDF).

[54] Castiglioni, S., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Skøien, J. O., Laaha, G., Blöschl, G., Smooth regional estimation of low-flow indices: physiographical space based interpolation and top-kriging, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 715-727, doi:10.5194/hess-15-715-2011, 2011 ( LINK).

[53] Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Lins, H., Koutsoyiannis, D., Brandimarte, L., Bloeschl, G., Flood fatalities in Africa: from diagnosis to mitigation, Geophysical Research Letters, 37,  L22402, doi:10.1029/2010GL045467, 2010 (PDF).

[52] Andres-Domenech, I., Montanari, A., Marco, J.B., Stochastic rainfall analysis for storm tank performance evaluation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1221 – 1232, 2010 ( LINK).

[51] Castiglioni, S., Lombardi, L., Castellarin, A., Toth, E., Montanari, A., Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum
likelihood approach, Advances in Water Resources, 33, 1235 – 1242, 2010 (PDF).

[50] Bloeschl, G., Montanari, A., Climate change impacts—throwing the dice?, Hydrological Processes, 24, 374 – 381, 2010 (PDF).

[49] Winsemius, H.C., Schaefli, B., Montanari, A., Savenije, H.H.G., On the calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins: A framework for integrating hard and soft hydrological information, Water Resources Research. vol. 45, doi: 10.1029/2009WR007706, 2009 (PDF).

[48] Pallard, B., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics, Hydrology And Earth System Sciences, 13, 1019 – 1029, 2009 ( LINK).

[47] Spezzani, P., Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Idraulica del Po e scenari di trasporto solido allo stato attuale e in presenza di sbarramenti, Arpa Rivista, 12, 16 – 17, 2009.

[46] Di Baldassarre G., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Brath, A., Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study. Natural Hazards, 50 (3), 479 – 496, 2009 (PDF).

[45] Di Baldassarre, G., e Montanari, A., Uncertainty in river discharge observations: a quantitative analysis, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 913 – 921, 2009 ( LINK).

[44] Montanari, A., Shoemaker, C.A., van de Giesen, N., Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges, Water Resources Research. vol. 45, doi:10.1029/2009WR008471, 2009 (PDF).

[43] Di Baldassarre, G., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Design flood estimation using model selection criteria, Physics And Chemistry of the Earth. vol. 34, 606-611, 2009 (PDF).

[42] Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Lins, H.F., Cohn, T.A., Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54, 394 – 405, 2009 (PDF).

[41] Laio, F., Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Model selection techniques for the frequency analysis of hydrological extremes, Water Resources Research, vol. 45, doi:10.1029/2007WR006666, 2009 (PDF).

[40] Castiglioni, S., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Prediction of low-flow indices in ungauged basins through physiographical space-based interpolation, Journal of Hydrology, 378, 272 – 280, 2009.

[39] Montanari, A., Grossi, G., Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: A statistical approach, Water Resources Research, 44, doi:10.1029/2008WR006897, 2008 (PDF).

[38] Montanari, A., L'importanza dei piccoli invasi, Arpa Rivista, 3, 29 – 30, 2008.

[37] Moretti, G., Montanari, A., Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 12, pp. 1141 – 1152, 2008 ( LINK).

[36] Masetti, R., Fagherazzi, S., Montanari, A., Application of a barrier island translation model to the millennial - scale evolution of sand key, florida, Continental Shelf Research, Vol. 28, 1116-1126, 2008.

[35] Grauso, S., Fattoruso, G., Crocetti, C. and Montanari, A., Estimating the suspended sediment yield in a river network by means of geomorphic parameters and regression relationships, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Vol. 12, 177-191, 2008 ( LINK).

[34] Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 43, W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007 (PDF).

[33] Montanari, A., Toth, E., Calibration of hydrological models in the spectral domain: An opportunity for ungauged basins?, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 43, W05434, doi:10.1029/2006WR005184, 2007 (PDF).

[32] Montanari, A., What do we mean by 'uncertainty'? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology, Hydrological Processes, Vol. 21, 841-845, 2007 (PDF).

[31] Moretti, G., e Montanari, A., Affdef: A spatially distributed grid based rainfall-runoff model for continuous time simulations of river discharge, Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 22(6), 823 – 836, 2007 (PDF).

[30] Di Baldassarre, G, Brath, A., Montanari, A., Reliability of different depth-duration-frequency equations for estimating short-duration design storms, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 42, W12501, doi:10.1029/2006WR004911, 2006 (PDF).

[29] Montanari, L., Montanari, A., Toth, E., A comparison and uncertainty assessment of system analysis techniques for short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting based on radar images, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, D14111, Vol. 111, doi:10.1029/2005JD006729, 2006.

[28] Brandimarte, L., Montanari, A., D'odorico, P. Scour risk analysis in river contractions, Journal of Hydraulic Research, Vol. 44, 654 – 662, 2006.

[27] Montanari, L. Sivapalan, M., Montanari, A., Investigation of dominant hydrological processes in a tropical catchment in a monsoonal climate via the downward approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 10, pp. 769 – 782, 2006 ( LINK).

[26] Brandimarte, L., Montanari A., Briaud, J.P., D'odorico, P., Stochastic flow analysis for predicting river scour of cohesive soils, Journal Of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 132, pp. 492 – 500, 2006.

[25] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Moretti G., Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty), Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 324, 141-153, 2006 (PDF).

[24] Montanari, A., Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resources Research, 41, W08406, doi, 10.1029/2004WR003826, AGU, Stati Uniti, Washington D.C., 2005 (PDF).

[23] Montanari, A., Deseasonalisation of hydrological time series through the normal quantile transform, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 313, 274-282, 2005 (PDF).

[22] Castellarin, A., Galeati, G., Brandimarte, L., Brath, A., Montanari, A.,. Regional flow-duration curve: realiability for ungauged basins, Advances In Water Resources, Vol. 27(10), pp. 953 – 965, 2004 (PDF).

[21] Montanari, A.e Brath, A., A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540, 2004 (PDF).

[20] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Toth, E., Analysis of the effects of different scenarios of historical data availability on the calibration of a spatially-distributed hydrological model, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 291(3-4), pp. 232-253, 2004.

[19] Brath, A., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Assessing the reliability of regional depth-duration-frequency equations for gaged and ungaged sites, Water Resources Research, Vol. 39(12), 1367, doi:10.1029/2003WR002399, 2003 (PDF).

[18] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Sensitivity of the peak flows to the spatial variability of the soil infiltration capacity for different climatic scenarios, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 28, pp. 247-254, Elsevier, Olanda, 2003.

[17] Brath, A., Montanari, A., e Toth, E., Neural networks and non-parametric methods for improving real-time flood forecasting through conceptual hydrological models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6(4), pp. 627-640, 2002.

[16] Brath, A., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Assessing the effects of land-use changes on annual average gross-erosion, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6(2), pp. 255-266, 2002.

[15] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Alfì, A., Studio su modello fisico del nuovo attraversamento autostradale del Fiume Reno, Ingegneri Architetti Costruttori, Vol. 4, pp. 257-266, 2002.

[14] Castellarin, A., Brath, A., Montanari, A., At-site and regional assessment of the possible presence of non-stationarity in extreme rainfall in northern Italy, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parte B, Vol. 26(9), pp. 705-710, Elsevier, Olanda, 2001.

[13] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Vulnerabilità idraulica dei ponti, in Soluzioni innovative nella manutenzione dei corsi d’acqua con forte trasporto solido, Numero speciale della Rivista L’Acqua, 3, 45-60, 2000.

[12] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Effects of the spatial variability of soil infiltration capacity in distributed rainfall runoff modeling, Hydrological Processes, Vol. 14(15), 2779-2794, 2000.

[11] Toth, E., Brath, A., Montanari, A., Comparison of short-term rainfall prediction models for real-time flood forecasting, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 239, 132-147, 2000.

[10] Alfì, A., Brath, A., e Montanari, A., Modello idraulico a fondo mobile del Fiume Reno per il nuovo attraversamento dell'Autostrada del Sole, Quarry and Constructions, Vol. 2, pp. 136-148, Edizioni PEI, Parma, 2000.
[9] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., A seasonal fractional ARIMA model applied to the Nile River monthly flows at Aswan, Water Resources Research, Vol. 36, pp. 1249-1259, AGU, Stati Uniti, 2000.

[8] Montanari, A., Taqqu, M.S., Teverovsky, V., Estimating long-range dependence in the presence of periodicity: an empirical study, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 29, 217-228, Elsevier, Stati Uniti, 1999.

[7] Toth, E., Brath, A., e Montanari, A., Real-time flood forecasting via combined use of conceptual and stochastic models, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, parte B, Vol. 24(7), pp. 793-798, Elsevier, Olanda, 1999.

[6] Montanari, A., Longoni, M., Rosso, R., A seasonal long-memory stochastic model for the simulation of daily river flows, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, parte B, Vol. 24(4), pp. 319-324, Elsevier, Olanda, 1999.

[5] De Michele, C., Montanari, A., e Rosso, R., The effects of non-stationarity on the evaluation of the critical design storm, Water Science and Technology, Vol. 37(11), pp. 187-193, Elsevier, Olanda, 1998.

[4] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: identification, estimation and simulation, Water Resources Research, Vol. 33, pp. 1035-1044, AGU, Stati Uniti, 1997.

[3] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., Some long-run properties of rainfall records in Italy, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. D21, pp. 431-438, AGU, Stati Uniti, 1996.

[2] Burlando, P., Montanari, A., Ranzi, R., Forecasting of storm rainfall by combined use of radar, rain gages and linear models, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 42, pp. 199-216, Elsevier, Olanda, 1996.

[1] Burlando, P., Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Modelling hydrological data with and without long memory, Meccanica, Vol. 31, pp 87-101, Kluwer, Olanda, 1996.