My presentation at the meeting of the Life-Iris project "Improve resilience of the industrial sector" (Bomporto, November 21, 2017) titled "Climate change: extreme rainfall, flood risk and adaptation strategies" (in Italian) can be downloaded at the link below.

Web site providing information, tutorials and videos for the master degree course on Mountain Rivers Training. The web page is in Italian.

I had the opportunity to participate, together with Attilio Castellarin and several other researchers, to a study conducted by a team at the Technical University of Wien, showing that the timing of the floods has shifted across much of Europe.

At the 2017 scientific assembly in Port Elizabeth (South Africa) I gave a perspective talk titled "Should we reconsider the conceptual structure of hydrological models?". My presentation is a bit provocative and focuses on stochastic physically-based modeling of hydrological processes.

I gave a talk on the river memory experiment at the 2017 scientific assembly in Port Elizabeth (South Africa).

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Scientific papers

Scientific Papers

[84] Ceola, S., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Human‐impacted waters: New perspectives from global high‐resolution monitoring. Water Resources Research, 51(9), 7064-7079, 2015.

[83] Sikorska, A.E., Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Estimating the Uncertainty of Hydrological Predictions through Data-Driven Resampling Techniques, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20, 2015.

[82] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!, Water Resources Research, 50, 9748-9756, 2014.

[81] Ceola, S., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7184-7190, 2014.

[80] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Reply to comment by Grey Nearing on "A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems", Water Resources Research, 50, 6264-6268, 2014.

[79] Montanari, A., Debates-The future of hydrological sciences: A (common) path forward? Introduction, Water Resources Research, 50, 5334-5334, 2014.

[78] Montanari, A., Water Resources Research in 2013, Water Resources Research, 50, 2787-2794, 2014.

[77] Bloeschl, G., Bardossy, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Kundzewicz, Z., Littlewood, I., Montanari, A., Savenije, H., On the future of journal publications in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 50, 2795-2797, 2014.

[76] Ceola, S., Bertuzzo, E., Singer, G., Battin, T., Montanari, A., Rinaldo, A., Hydrologic controls on basin- scale distribution of benthic invertebrates, Water Resources Research, 50, 2903-2920, 2014.

[75] Gupta, H.V., Perrin, C., Bloeschl, G., Montanari, A., Kumar, R., Clark, M., Andreassian, V., Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 463-477, 2014.

[74] Ceola, S., Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 1(5), 427-438, 2014.

[73] Montanari, A., Bloeschl, G., Cai, X., Mackay, D.S., Michalak, A., Rajaram, H., Sander, G., Editorial: Toward 50 years of Water Resources Research, Water Resources Research, 49, 7841-7842, 2013.

[72] Montanari, A., et al. "“Panta Rhei—everything flows”: change in hydrology and society—the IAHS scientific decade 2013–2022." Hydrological Sciences Journal 58.6, 1256-1275, 2013.

[71] Hrachowitz, M., et al., A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 58, 1198-1255, 2013.

[70] Thompson, S.E., Sivapalan, M., Harman, C.J., Srinivasan, V., Hipsey, M.R., Reed, P., Montanari, A., Bloeschl, G., Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 5013-5039, 2013.

[69] Montanari, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Data errors and hydrological modelling: The role of model structure to propagate observation uncertainty, Advances in Water Resources, 51, 498-504, 2013.

[68] Montanari, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems, Water Resources Research, 48, 2012.

[67] Baratti, E., Montanari, A., Castellarin, A., Salinas, J.L., Viglione, A., Bezzi, A., Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4651-4660.

[66] Montanari, A., Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3739-3747, 2012.

[65] Montosi, E., Manzoni, S., Porporato, A., Montanari, A., An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2759-2769, 2012.

[64] Di Baldassarre, G., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 85-90, 2012 (PDF).

[63] Lombardi, L., Toth, E., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Brath, A., Calibration of a rainfall–runoff model at regional scale by optimising river discharge statistics: Performance analysis for the average/low flow regime, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 77-84, 2012 (PDF).

[62] Biondi, D., Freni, G., Iacobellis, V., Mascaro, G., Montanari, A., Validation of hydrological models: Conceptual basis, methodological approaches and a proposal for a code of practice, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 70-76, 2012 (PDF).

[61] Freni, G., Mannina, G., Montanari, A., Uncertainty in environmental and hydrological mathematical modelling - Introduction to Special Issue "Estimating and representing uncertainty in applied hydrology, hydraulics and water quality studies", Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 1-2, 2012 (PDF).

[60] Andrés-Doménech, I. Montanari, A., Marco, J.B., Efficiency of Storm Detention Tanks for Urban Drainage Systems under Climate Variability, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, 138, 36-46, 2012 (PDF).

[59] Papalexiou, S.-M., Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Can a simple stochastic model generate rich patterns of rainfall events?, Journal of Hydrology, 411, 279-289, 2011 (PDF).

[58] Wagener, T., Montanari, A., Convergence of approaches toward reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins, Water Resources Research, 47, doi:10.1029/2010WR009469, 2011 (PDF).

[57] Hostache, R., Matgen, P., Montanari, A., Montanari, M., Hoffmann, L., Pfister, L., Propagation of uncertainties in coupled hydro-meteorological forecasting systems: A stochastic approach for the assessment of the total predictive uncertainty, Atmospheric Research, 100, 263 - 274, 2011 (PDF).

[56] Montanari, A., Uncertainty of hydrological predictions, in Treatise on Water Science, edited by Peter A. Wilderer, Elsevier., 2011 (PDF).

[55] Brandimarte, L., Di Baldassarre, G., Bruni, G., D’Odorico, P., Montanari, A.,  Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas, Water Resources Management, 25, 1269– 1279, 2011 (PDF).

[54] Castiglioni, S., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Skøien, J. O., Laaha, G., Blöschl, G., Smooth regional estimation of low-flow indices: physiographical space based interpolation and top-kriging, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 715-727, doi:10.5194/hess-15-715-2011, 2011 ( LINK).

[53] Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Lins, H., Koutsoyiannis, D., Brandimarte, L., Bloeschl, G., Flood fatalities in Africa: from diagnosis to mitigation, Geophysical Research Letters, 37,  L22402, doi:10.1029/2010GL045467, 2010 (PDF).

[52] Andres-Domenech, I., Montanari, A., Marco, J.B., Stochastic rainfall analysis for storm tank performance evaluation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1221 – 1232, 2010 ( LINK).

[51] Castiglioni, S., Lombardi, L., Castellarin, A., Toth, E., Montanari, A., Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum
likelihood approach, Advances in Water Resources, 33, 1235 – 1242, 2010 (PDF).

[50] Bloeschl, G., Montanari, A., Climate change impacts—throwing the dice?, Hydrological Processes, 24, 374 – 381, 2010 (PDF).

[49] Winsemius, H.C., Schaefli, B., Montanari, A., Savenije, H.H.G., On the calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins: A framework for integrating hard and soft hydrological information, Water Resources Research. vol. 45, doi: 10.1029/2009WR007706, 2009 (PDF).

[48] Pallard, B., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics, Hydrology And Earth System Sciences, 13, 1019 – 1029, 2009 ( LINK).

[47] Spezzani, P., Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Idraulica del Po e scenari di trasporto solido allo stato attuale e in presenza di sbarramenti, Arpa Rivista, 12, 16 – 17, 2009.

[46] Di Baldassarre G., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Brath, A., Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study. Natural Hazards, 50 (3), 479 – 496, 2009 (PDF).

[45] Di Baldassarre, G., e Montanari, A., Uncertainty in river discharge observations: a quantitative analysis, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 913 – 921, 2009 ( LINK).

[44] Montanari, A., Shoemaker, C.A., van de Giesen, N., Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges, Water Resources Research. vol. 45, doi:10.1029/2009WR008471, 2009 (PDF).

[43] Di Baldassarre, G., Laio, F., Montanari, A., Design flood estimation using model selection criteria, Physics And Chemistry of the Earth. vol. 34, 606-611, 2009 (PDF).

[42] Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Lins, H.F., Cohn, T.A., Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54, 394 – 405, 2009 (PDF).

[41] Laio, F., Di Baldassarre, G., Montanari, A., Model selection techniques for the frequency analysis of hydrological extremes, Water Resources Research, vol. 45, doi:10.1029/2007WR006666, 2009 (PDF).

[40] Castiglioni, S., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Prediction of low-flow indices in ungauged basins through physiographical space-based interpolation, Journal of Hydrology, 378, 272 – 280, 2009.

[39] Montanari, A., Grossi, G., Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological forecasts: A statistical approach, Water Resources Research, 44, doi:10.1029/2008WR006897, 2008 (PDF).

[38] Montanari, A., L'importanza dei piccoli invasi, Arpa Rivista, 3, 29 – 30, 2008.

[37] Moretti, G., Montanari, A., Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 12, pp. 1141 – 1152, 2008 ( LINK).

[36] Masetti, R., Fagherazzi, S., Montanari, A., Application of a barrier island translation model to the millennial - scale evolution of sand key, florida, Continental Shelf Research, Vol. 28, 1116-1126, 2008.

[35] Grauso, S., Fattoruso, G., Crocetti, C. and Montanari, A., Estimating the suspended sediment yield in a river network by means of geomorphic parameters and regression relationships, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Vol. 12, 177-191, 2008 ( LINK).

[34] Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 43, W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007 (PDF).

[33] Montanari, A., Toth, E., Calibration of hydrological models in the spectral domain: An opportunity for ungauged basins?, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 43, W05434, doi:10.1029/2006WR005184, 2007 (PDF).

[32] Montanari, A., What do we mean by 'uncertainty'? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology, Hydrological Processes, Vol. 21, 841-845, 2007 (PDF).

[31] Moretti, G., e Montanari, A., Affdef: A spatially distributed grid based rainfall-runoff model for continuous time simulations of river discharge, Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 22(6), 823 – 836, 2007 (PDF).

[30] Di Baldassarre, G, Brath, A., Montanari, A., Reliability of different depth-duration-frequency equations for estimating short-duration design storms, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 42, W12501, doi:10.1029/2006WR004911, 2006 (PDF).

[29] Montanari, L., Montanari, A., Toth, E., A comparison and uncertainty assessment of system analysis techniques for short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting based on radar images, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, D14111, Vol. 111, doi:10.1029/2005JD006729, 2006.

[28] Brandimarte, L., Montanari, A., D'odorico, P. Scour risk analysis in river contractions, Journal of Hydraulic Research, Vol. 44, 654 – 662, 2006.

[27] Montanari, L. Sivapalan, M., Montanari, A., Investigation of dominant hydrological processes in a tropical catchment in a monsoonal climate via the downward approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 10, pp. 769 – 782, 2006 ( LINK).

[26] Brandimarte, L., Montanari A., Briaud, J.P., D'odorico, P., Stochastic flow analysis for predicting river scour of cohesive soils, Journal Of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 132, pp. 492 – 500, 2006.

[25] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Moretti G., Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty), Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 324, 141-153, 2006 (PDF).

[24] Montanari, A., Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resources Research, 41, W08406, doi, 10.1029/2004WR003826, AGU, Stati Uniti, Washington D.C., 2005 (PDF).

[23] Montanari, A., Deseasonalisation of hydrological time series through the normal quantile transform, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 313, 274-282, 2005 (PDF).

[22] Castellarin, A., Galeati, G., Brandimarte, L., Brath, A., Montanari, A.,. Regional flow-duration curve: realiability for ungauged basins, Advances In Water Resources, Vol. 27(10), pp. 953 – 965, 2004 (PDF).

[21] Montanari, A.e Brath, A., A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540, 2004 (PDF).

[20] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Toth, E., Analysis of the effects of different scenarios of historical data availability on the calibration of a spatially-distributed hydrological model, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 291(3-4), pp. 232-253, 2004.

[19] Brath, A., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Assessing the reliability of regional depth-duration-frequency equations for gaged and ungaged sites, Water Resources Research, Vol. 39(12), 1367, doi:10.1029/2003WR002399, 2003 (PDF).

[18] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Sensitivity of the peak flows to the spatial variability of the soil infiltration capacity for different climatic scenarios, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 28, pp. 247-254, Elsevier, Olanda, 2003.

[17] Brath, A., Montanari, A., e Toth, E., Neural networks and non-parametric methods for improving real-time flood forecasting through conceptual hydrological models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6(4), pp. 627-640, 2002.

[16] Brath, A., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A., Assessing the effects of land-use changes on annual average gross-erosion, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6(2), pp. 255-266, 2002.

[15] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Alfì, A., Studio su modello fisico del nuovo attraversamento autostradale del Fiume Reno, Ingegneri Architetti Costruttori, Vol. 4, pp. 257-266, 2002.

[14] Castellarin, A., Brath, A., Montanari, A., At-site and regional assessment of the possible presence of non-stationarity in extreme rainfall in northern Italy, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parte B, Vol. 26(9), pp. 705-710, Elsevier, Olanda, 2001.

[13] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Vulnerabilità idraulica dei ponti, in Soluzioni innovative nella manutenzione dei corsi d’acqua con forte trasporto solido, Numero speciale della Rivista L’Acqua, 3, 45-60, 2000.

[12] Brath, A., Montanari, A., Effects of the spatial variability of soil infiltration capacity in distributed rainfall runoff modeling, Hydrological Processes, Vol. 14(15), 2779-2794, 2000.

[11] Toth, E., Brath, A., Montanari, A., Comparison of short-term rainfall prediction models for real-time flood forecasting, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 239, 132-147, 2000.

[10] Alfì, A., Brath, A., e Montanari, A., Modello idraulico a fondo mobile del Fiume Reno per il nuovo attraversamento dell'Autostrada del Sole, Quarry and Constructions, Vol. 2, pp. 136-148, Edizioni PEI, Parma, 2000.
[9] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., A seasonal fractional ARIMA model applied to the Nile River monthly flows at Aswan, Water Resources Research, Vol. 36, pp. 1249-1259, AGU, Stati Uniti, 2000.

[8] Montanari, A., Taqqu, M.S., Teverovsky, V., Estimating long-range dependence in the presence of periodicity: an empirical study, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 29, 217-228, Elsevier, Stati Uniti, 1999.

[7] Toth, E., Brath, A., e Montanari, A., Real-time flood forecasting via combined use of conceptual and stochastic models, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, parte B, Vol. 24(7), pp. 793-798, Elsevier, Olanda, 1999.

[6] Montanari, A., Longoni, M., Rosso, R., A seasonal long-memory stochastic model for the simulation of daily river flows, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, parte B, Vol. 24(4), pp. 319-324, Elsevier, Olanda, 1999.

[5] De Michele, C., Montanari, A., e Rosso, R., The effects of non-stationarity on the evaluation of the critical design storm, Water Science and Technology, Vol. 37(11), pp. 187-193, Elsevier, Olanda, 1998.

[4] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: identification, estimation and simulation, Water Resources Research, Vol. 33, pp. 1035-1044, AGU, Stati Uniti, 1997.

[3] Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Taqqu, M.S., Some long-run properties of rainfall records in Italy, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. D21, pp. 431-438, AGU, Stati Uniti, 1996.

[2] Burlando, P., Montanari, A., Ranzi, R., Forecasting of storm rainfall by combined use of radar, rain gages and linear models, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 42, pp. 199-216, Elsevier, Olanda, 1996.

[1] Burlando, P., Montanari, A., Rosso, R., Modelling hydrological data with and without long memory, Meccanica, Vol. 31, pp 87-101, Kluwer, Olanda, 1996.

English